Download Estimating Terrorism Risk (Rand Corporation Monograph) by Henry H. Willis (Editor) PDF
By Henry H. Willis (Editor)
The dep. of fatherland protection is chargeable for holding the us from terrorism. It does so partially in the course of the city parts safety Initiative, although its distribution has been criticized for now not reflecting possibility. This monograph deals a pragmatic definition of terrorism threat and a mode for estimating it that addresses inherent uncertainties. It additionally demonstrates a framework for comparing substitute chance estimates. ultimately, it makes 5 thoughts for bettering source allocation.
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Extra resources for Estimating Terrorism Risk (Rand Corporation Monograph)
Sample text
CHAPTER FIVE Evaluating the Performance of Different Estimates of Terrorism Risk We have argued that uncertainties in the distribution of terrorism risk necessitate risk estimates that perform well across a range of assumptions about terrorist threat, vulnerability, and consequences. In this chapter, we describe a model for evaluating the performance of alternative risk estimates across a range of plausible terrorism futures. We use this model to compare the robustness to uncertainty of three estimates introduced earlier: the population, density-weighted population, and the proposed aggregated estimate as indicators of the share of terrorism risk for each of the UASI urban areas.
Shares of UASI funding closely track urban areas’ shares of population. 02 occurring for Los Angeles. If one believes the underlying assumptions of the RMS Terrorism Risk Model, then the distribution of resources does not match the distribution of terrorism risk. As stated previously, this might be acceptable because of issues of cost effectiveness of available risk reduction opportunities. CHAPTER FIVE Evaluating the Performance of Different Estimates of Terrorism Risk We have argued that uncertainties in the distribution of terrorism risk necessitate risk estimates that perform well across a range of assumptions about terrorist threat, vulnerability, and consequences.
These uncertainties can be addressed by considering a full distribution for potential consequences or specific points along this distribution. Haimes (2004) notes that risk assessment of rare and extreme events requires special consideration of the tails of these distributions, and that the expected value often misrepresents true risk. Conversely, estimates of the tail of the distribution will be very dependent upon assumptions when considering events like terrorism where there is great uncertainty about events and limited historical information.